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Center for Strategic and International Studies
R. W. Beck Approach Electricity Market Simulation Models Proprietary econometric natural gas forecast Exceptions Renewables above existing state-level RPS permitted Demand Elasticity 0.2
Considerations Not Addressed
Major transmission changes Fuel price changes other than natural gas Improvements in costs of CCS technology Reductions will occur within utility industry (i.e., no consideration for offsets or cheaper reductions in other economy sectors)
CO2 Emissions By Technology/Fuel Type
PC Schematic without CCS
PC Schematic with CCS
Market Observations
Given a 50 tax 347 GW of coal-fired capacity is retrofitted 104 GW of capacity lost Renewable power options are not built beyond RPS requirements
Market Observations in 2024
National Average Power Price (2008) 0 tax – 60 30 tax – 87 50 tax – 94
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