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PPT : Recent Trends in Tornado Statistics and Associated Warnings Perceptions (and Misperceptions)
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*There are many “perceptions” in the public and in the meteorological community regarding tornadoes
* My question:
o Do recent statistical trends support these often long held beliefs?
Important note: These analyses are informal. No detailed formal statistical analyses have been conducted.
Perception #1
* The large majority of fatalities associated with tornadoes are caused by violent tornadoes.
o This statement can be found in many books and all over the web.
o The most commonly quoted statistic is that 67% of fatalities occur with F4-F5 tornadoes.
From Tornado Project website
Do Recent Trends Support This?
* No!
* During the most recently completed decade, only 39% of the tornado related fatalities were caused by F4+ tornadoes.
o That number decreases to 14% for 2001-2005.
o Since January 1 2006, there have been 110 tornado related fatalities nationwide. Only 10 were caused by a violent (F4+) tornado. (Note: This figure was 0 until Miller’s Ferry and Enterprise, AL tornadoes were upgraded to EF-4 this week.)
Additional Thoughts
* Fujita scale was operationally implemented in the NWS around the mid-1970s
o Numbers since that time have never supported a value over 50% for fatalities associated with violent tornadoes
o Statistic likely based on data including the ‘50s and ‘60s, which were “post-analyzed”
* A value closer to 40% is probably more reasonable
o Recent trends are even lower?! 2001 to today: 11%!
Are Most “Significant” Killer Tornadoes Violent?
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PPT : Recent Trends in Tornado Statistics and Associated Warnings Perceptions (and Misperceptions).ppt
Category : Earth SciencesSource : www.srh.noaa.gov
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