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PPT : The Delphi Method and The Nominal Group Technique

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The Delphi Method
* The Delphi Method is a group decision process about the likelihood that certain events will occur.
* Today it is also used for environmental, marketing and sales forecasting.
* The Delphi Method uses a panel of experts.
* Expert responses to a series of questionnaires are anonymous.
* Each round of questionnaires results in a median answer.
* The process guides the group towards a consensus.

Delphi in Context
* The Delphi technique was invented by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey of the Rand Corporation in 1953 for the purpose of addressing a specific military problem.
* The object of the Delphi method is to obtain a reliable response to a problem from a group of experts.
* In a Delphi study, the participants do not interact with one another,
* Delphi technique is used today in business, education, and the social sciences

DELPHI METHOD DETAIL
* The Delphi method is an exercise in group communication among a panel of geographically dispersed experts (Adler and Ziglio, 1996).
* It allows experts to deal systematically with a complex problem or task.
* A series of questionnaires are sent either by mail or email to a pre-selected group of experts.
* According to Fowles (1978) anonymity, controlled feedback, and statistical response characterize Delphi.
* Interaction in Delphi is anonymous, comments, forecasts, etc are presented to the group in such a way as to suppress any identification.

DELPHI METHOD PROCESS
* Fowles (1978) describes ten steps for the Delphi method:
* 1.Formation of a Delphi team to undertake a Delphi on a subject.
* 2.Selection of expert panel(s).
* 3.Development of the first round questionnaire
* 4.Testing the questionnaire for proper wording.
* 5.Transmission to the panelists.
* 6. Analysis of 1st responses
* 7. Preparation of 2nd round.
* 8. Transmission of 2nd round questionnaires to the panelists
* 9.Analysis of the 2nd round responses (7 to 9 may be repeated to get consensus)
* 10. Preparation and presentation of report

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